Feb 28, 2012 0
Renewable Energy and the Need to Fund Change
Access to electricity stands at 26% in sub Saharan Africa, the lowest worldwide and the picture is even worse in rural areas where it is estimated that only 5% have access to electricity (WHO, 2009). All agree that significant change is needed in order to rectify the imbalance.
The effect of a different kind of change – climate change – has resulted in a massive push worldwide for the growing need for electricity to be met by renewable energy sources and Africa is no exception. The South African National Energy Association believes that Africa’s energy supplies would have to increase at least fourfold by 2025, if the continent were to meet the energy demand of its people. Ideally the largest portion of that supply should come from renewable sources.
The perplexing energy security situation contrasts strikingly with the abundant natural resources of the sub-Saharan Africa region: most countries in the region have renewable energy potential many times the current demand and the potential is exploitable using currently proven technologies and available know-how in electricity generation from hydro-power, as well as geothermal, wind, biomass and solar energy sources.
To date, the potential benefits of renewable energy have to a large degree not been seized in the sub-Saharan African region, despite the many economic, social and environmental advantages associated with it. Renewable energy can put an end to South Africa’s reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal and can be an avenue to better exploit the economic opportunities offered by international carbon markets.
The most severe challenges facing the continent, with regard to power generation include inadequate development of the energy infrastructure, high capital costs attached to energy projects, the lack of technical expertise and perhaps most importantly, the lack of finance and investing in energy projects.
Thankfully, a broad range of financial institutions are starting to invest or lend money into the renewable energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Global investment in the renewable energy sector grew exponentially from $22 billion in 2002 to $155 billion in 2008 (UNEP, 2009) when, for the first time, investment in new renewable energy power generation capacity was greater than investment in fossil fuel generation worldwide. The financial crisis in late 2008 did hit the sector heavily, although investor interest in the sector has returned and is growing steadily.
It is estimated that South Africa would need approximately R110 billion in investment to meet the renewable energy capacity as envisaged in the government’s Integrated Resource Plan (Loni Prinsloo, 2011). A large financing gap exists in the power sector as the focus of much of the current spending is on maintenance and operation of the existing power infrastructure, the new build programme of coal-fired stations and the re-activation of previously mothballed coal plants, with little remaining to fund long-term investments and to address the power supply crisis by means of renewable energy sources.
For this gap to be closed, private financiers and investors need to be involved. This is a somewhat new approach given that, traditionally, the bulk of investments in infrastructure (electricity included), have been made by government. Private institutions are becoming increasingly active in a variety of roles across the energy sector, including as debt and equity financiers, advisors and in public-private partnerships.
The private sector, however, approaches investments in renewable energy in the same manner as any other investments. Renewable energy investments, though, have certain characteristics that require an additional level of understanding. These include the influence of policy and regulation on the viability of an investment, including the legal basis and durability of any subsidies, grants, tradable certificates or tax credits. These factors are layered on top of the basic financial analysis of any renewable energy project.
Financial institutions operate on a risk and return basis evaluating each potential investment opportunity on its merits, with financial return and risk being co-dependent categories. Project sponsors, lenders and investors, want to make a return proportional to the level of risk they undertake. So as with all other classes of projects and investment, renewable energy investment becomes more likely and frequent if the perceived levels of investment risk are reduced for a given level of return, or returns are increased for any given level of risk.
The financial profitability of the underlying technology and the extent to which it is financially competitive compared to other competing technologies is critical in driving the financial return of any energy investment. In the context of electricity generated for large, centralised grids, it is still the case that, electricity generation from renewable sources is generally more expensive than from conventional sources.
Nonetheless, generation costs for renewable energy generation are decreasing and certain technologies are already competitive, or at ‘grid-parity’, with conventional forms of electricity generation in many parts of the world. In South Africa, solar photo voltaic generation is expected to be fully financially competitive with conventional coal-fired generation as soon as 2015 (PV Magazine, 2010).
When it comes to the financiers’ assessment of risk, regional circumstances in particular include a variety of investment related risks (country, regulatory, commercial and market risks) that will be more pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries than in developed countries or emerging economies. These risks will immediately increase the return expectations of investors and thus, any project’s cost of capital. Lenders also stress the importance of a credible offtake agreement, with acceptable costing, and ‘take or pay’ features – lenders need to know that their returns are adequate to support the serviceability of the funding over the long project lead time. The combination of these risks and lender requirements, often leads to capital-intensive energy options being discouraged, and the focus being placed on less capital-intensive, conventional energy technologies.
The range of renewable energy risk profiles can nonetheless be matched to the spectrum of financial institutions from banks, pension funds, private equity and venture capital providers. However, the renewable energy sector requires a clear policy environment to deliver the project economics to attract private debt and equity. Policy and regulation continue to be central to ensuring the long term stability of projects from a revenue and operation perspective.
It is thus imperative that both regulation and policy be clear, of a long duration, and legally based in order to deliver growing volumes of private funds into the renewable energy sector.
Sources:
Loni Prinsloo, 2011 – (R100bn investment needed to meet SA’s renewable energy aspirations)
Magazine, 2010 – (South Africa: Grid parity within sight, but Refit needs to be implemented soon)
UNEP, 2009 – United Nations Environment Programme, 2009 (Private Financing of Renewable Energy – A Guide for Policymakers)
WHO, 2009 – World Health Organization (The Energy Access Situation in Developing Countries)









